Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in the US during 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as a significant player, capturing roughly one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs). This echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded initial projections and necessitated air-freighting additional consoles to meet demand.

While anticipation for the Switch 2 is palpable, translating online buzz into concrete sales remains uncertain. Success hinges on several critical factors: optimal launch timing, superior hardware quality, and a competitive game lineup. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed around Japan's Golden Week, is speculated to boost sales.

Piscatella acknowledges potential supply chain challenges, mirroring the original Switch and PS5 launches. However, Nintendo's preparedness in this area remains unclear. The possibility of preemptive stockpiling to avoid shortages is considered.

Despite the optimistic Switch 2 forecast, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its leading position in US console sales. The highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6, slated for a potential 2025 release, could significantly bolster PS5 sales. Nevertheless, the Switch 2's success ultimately depends on its hardware capabilities and the strength of its initial game releases. The level of excitement surrounding the console suggests a strong potential, but the ultimate market share remains to be seen.